Germany EUR

Germany 15-Year Bund Auction

Impact:
Low

Latest Release:

Actual:
2.83%
Forecast:
Previous/Revision:
3.08%
Period: Apr 2025

Next Release:

Forecast:
Period: May 2025
What Does It Measure?
The Germany 15-Year Bund Auction measures the demand for and interest rates on 15-year government bonds issued by Germany. This event assesses investor confidence in German government debt and gives insight into long-term borrowing costs, which are indicative of a national economic outlook.
Frequency
The auction is held irregularly, often a few times per year, with results typically released on the day of the auction.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor bund auctions to gauge sentiment towards German debt, which affects the euro and European asset markets. Higher demand or lower yields at the auction indicate strong confidence in Germany's fiscal health, potentially leading to a bullish outcome for the euro and German bonds, whereas weak auction results can have bearish implications.
What Is It Derived From?
The results of the auction are derived from bids submitted by financial institutions and large investors, who indicate the price and quantity of bonds they wish to purchase. This process helps to establish the yield based on competitive bidding, reflecting the market's evaluation of future interest rates and inflation expectations.
Description
Bund auctions provide insights by revealing the interest rate and bid-to-cover ratio, which indicates demand. A preliminary result is immediately available post-auction day, whereas more detailed analyses may follow, solidifying the market's interpretation as the final data. Traders and investors react predominantly to the preliminary results due to their timeliness, though final data can fine-tune sentiment and investment strategies.
Additional Notes
The auction serves as a leading indicator of investor sentiment towards government debt and economic stability. Its results can be compared to similar European sovereign bond auctions, providing context for regional economic conditions.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for Euro, Bullish for German stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for Euro, Bearish for German stocks. Hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates or inflation concerns, is usually good for the Euro but bad for German stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
2.83%
3.08%
3.08%
2.6%
2.6%
2.74%
2.74%
2.64%
2.64%
2.52%
2.52%
2.42%
2.42%
2.44%
2.44%
2.6%
2.6%
2.8%
2.8%
2.54%
2.54%
2.65%
2.65%
2.51%
2.51%
2.77%
2.77%
3.05%
3.05%
2.67%
2.67%
2.64%
2.64%
2.51%
2.51%
2.79%
2.79%
2.1%
2.1%
2.26%
2.26%
2.12%
2.12%
1.74%
1.74%
1.04%
1.04%
1.91%
1.91%
1.15%
1.15%
0.99%
0.99%
0.37%
0.37%
0.15%
0.15%
-0.06%
-0.06%
0.02%
0.02%
-0.06%